Car Troubles - June 26, 2009 America is having car troubles. The fall of General Motors and Chrysler is causing domestic manufacturers to re-think their mission and to develop the next generation of transport. The movement now appears to be headed to a greene

June 26, 2009

America is having car troubles. The fall of General Motors and Chrysler is causing domestic manufacturers to re-think their mission and to develop the next generation of transport. The movement now appears to be headed to a greener future and perhaps with those vehicles that run mostly on electricity.

And while the automotive sector plans to introduce its first so-called plug-in vehicles that can charge from any conventional outlet by 2011, those cars will not soon make a dent in the overall market. The central question then becomes whether such cars and trucks will create for themselves a long-term spot within the transport realm or whether they will go by the way of earlier versions of the all-electric vehicle.

"Because plug-ins are powered at least in part by electricity, they could significantly reduce oil consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions," says a recent report by the General Accountability Office, the congressional watchdog agency. "For plug-ins to realize their full potential, electricity would need to be generated from lower-emission fuels such as nuclear and renewable energy rather than the fossil fuels -- coal and natural gas -- used most often to generate electricity today."

Beyond that, battery costs must significantly fall while gasoline prices must stay relatively high. At the same time, the infrastructure to support such vehicles must also expand to allow cars that need to be recharged during the day -- as opposed to filled up with gasoline -- to have access to public charging ports.

Today's hybrids, which run on both gas and electricity, use nickel metal batteries. But the industry wants lithium-ion batteries, which are smaller and have the potential to store much more power than the nickel ones. The biggest impediment, understandably, is perfecting the technology while also bringing down the costs.

If this can be done, then the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in areas of the country that rely heavily on coal would be greatly enhanced. The GAO report points to a study at the University of Texas that says that using plug-in hybrids would substantially reduce smog in major cities if they were charged at night. In regions where cleaner fuel forms are used to create electric generation, the environmental case is easier to make but the operational costs of those plug-ins would be more expensive.

President Obama has challenged the car industry to put 1 million plug-in hybrids on the road by 2015. The goal, for now, is to commercialize those vehicles that will be able to travel 40 miles before they would need to be recharged. The electric car of yesteryear, by contrast, could only travel a short distance before it had to be juiced up.

"Now we need to put the pedal to the metal and exceed those goals so we can rapidly get our country's transportation off of oil and reduce the climate crisis," says Linda Nicholes, a board member of Plug in America.

Distant Promise

Change, however, won't happen so fast. So, why not spend the resources improving the current hybrid technologies? In fact, such cars boast 50 miles to the gallon compared to 30 miles to the gallon for conventional vehicles. Not only are they less of a leap for consumers who are certainly not accustomed to energizing their cars from wall sockets but they also are already on the road.

Then there's the question of the true environmental affect. A Carnegie Mellon study says that weight and size of the storage device will determine whether greenhouse gases will ultimately be cut. Plug-in hybrids with smaller batteries that are charged every 10 hours or so are less expensive and will release fewer greenhouse gases than today's hybrids, the study concludes. But the same cars with larger batteries that can go greater distances may not offer the same advantages.

Consider further that in coal-dependent areas such as the southeast or Texas, the prevailing hybrids on the road might make more sense. The GAO cites the Electric Power Research Institute: It says that electricity provided by coal for plug-in vehicles with a 20-mile all-electric range had slightly greater carbon dioxide emissions than the hybrids that exist today. Therefore, the futuristic plug-ins are best suited to reduce such global warming releases in regions where electricity is now provided by low-carbon sources.

The U.S. government supports the transition to cleaner transportation through research dollars and customer incentives. Sales figures for cars that will be able to run not just on electricity but also on alternative fuels should keep rising as a result.

If the all-electric car is to become a permanent fixture, however, then the auto industry must develop long-lasting and cost-effective batteries. Indeed, this is where the U.S. transport sector can remake itself. Through American ingenuity, such devices are already progressing at a notable rate, as the battery packs unveiled a decade ago were far weightier and bulkier than those around today. At the same time, modern batteries are said to have just as much power as a six-cylinder, gas-enabled vehicle.

"I think hybrids have enormous promise," says Alfred Marcus, professor of strategic management at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, referring to both today's technologies as well as those plug-ins to hit the market in 2011. "If the U.S. had a goal that 50 percent of all vehicles on the road in 10 years would be some form of hybrid, gasoline consumption could go down by a quarter."

The hybrid vehicle that runs on both electricity and gas is already here. But automakers seem to be saying that such cars are a bridge to something better. Their goal is to create vehicles that are safer, cleaner and cheaper. The all-electric vehicle may be the one, although it is still a long way from delivering on its promises.

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